Trying to Decipher Mortgage Interest Rate Movements

Why Did the Mortgage  Interest Rate Go Down Before the Official Cash Rate (OCR) & will the mortgage interest rate continue to decrease?

The major banks all announced reductions in their floating and fixed-term mortgage rates before a reduction in OCR in August.

Mortgage Interest Rate
Mortgage Interest Rate

This was exciting news for borrowers and those with mortgage rates about to come up for renewal.

But why was there a drop in mortgage rates before the OCR reduction…

The OCR has remained steady at 5.5% since May 2023.

So, what caused the mortgage rates to decrease?

Let’s investigate that now.

Mortgage Rates Are Decreasing

Back on 11th July, Westpac was the first of the major banks to announce significant cuts to their fixed-term mortgage and term deposit rates.

They knocked 25 basis points off the popular one-year term to bring it down to 6.89%.

In the week that followed, the other major banks followed suit, reducing many of their fixed term rates also.

Then, in another shock move, just 14 days after they initially cut those rates, Westpac announced another round of rate cuts.

This round of cuts was largely to match the rates their competitors had announced following the initial flurry.

We eagerly awaited potential responses from the other major lenders in the market to see who would be next to make the move to become the market front runner.

ASB quickly took that spot on 30th July, with the lowest 6-month rate of 6.99%.

So, why the sudden race to the bottom?

Why did Mortgage Rates Go Down?

In previous months, we’ve indicated that the decision to move fixed term interest rates is largely tied to the OCR review carried out by the Reserve Bank.

As mentioned, the OCR has remained at 5.5% for the last eight Reserve Bank review sessions.

There are a couple standout of reasons why the rates suddenly went down.

Reason One

There was a strong expectation that OCR cuts were not as far away as the Reserve Bank initially indicated in their review before May 2024.

But then in the May policy announcement, the Reserve Bank indicated things needed to remain restrictive until inflation was within the target band, meaning that the OCR would likely remain at its current level until the second half of 2025.

Some economists were not so sure that this was the case.

They thought that the Reserve Bank may have gone too far with the restrictive message and that OCR cuts needed to be made sooner rather than later.

The general consensus at that time was that the cuts would more than likely come in November 2024.

Virtually no one saw the cuts happening in August.

The fixed-rate cuts before August could have been a sign that the major banks were pre-empting an OCR drop with cuts of their own.

Reason Two

The second reason for the cuts could be that the wholesale rates had “collapsed” in early August.

Wholesale swap rates are what banks are charged to borrow money from central sources.

With the two-year swap rate hitting a low of 4.19%, it was the lowest rate seen in two years.

With lower wholesale rates, it costs less for the banks to borrow money. These savings can then be passed onto their customers, meaning the potential for lower interest rates.

In hindsight, the cut in the OCR occurred partly due to the Reserve Bank reacting to the reduction in the whole sale rates.

As mentioned this was much sooner than the Reserve Bank initially indicated.

Will the Reduction in Rates continue?

This is a question that many people have been asking while juggling high inflation and the continual cost of living pressure.

It is very much a case of WHEN further rate cuts will come now, not IF.

This is great news for borrowers as interest rates are on track to go down further

It will be particularly important if you have a fixed-term mortgage due for renewal soon.

As we mentioned earlier, the official prediction from the top economists is that we would likely see the first OCR cut in November.

The feeling behind that prediction was that the Reserve Bank will want to see the latest inflation figures to confirm things are finally sitting in the 1-3% bracket they have been aiming for and these figures were not released until late October.

However, with the economy continuing to look weak and June 2024 reporting the lowest number of new mortgages recorded since detailed data collection began, economists began to suggest that the OCR should be cut sooner.

Since the Reserve Bank had indicated that OCR rates could increase in the May 2024 announcement, it was unlikely the Reserve Bank would do a complete 180 to introduce a cut in the August update.

A potential rate cut was definitely on the cards when the Reserve Bank took a closer look in June/July at not only at unemployment numbers and GDP results but also a range of micro business indicators which gave a very negative view of how the economy was tracking.

So, what is the verdict?

The only thing that’s clear is that we don’t know anything definitely. The mentality of survive until 2025 is still very much alive!

If the annual CPI inflation is on track to reduce and to be within the target band by the end of this year, then there is a chance that the OCR will reduce again on the October review.

A further reduction again in November will be dependent on how consumer demand recovers.

Our recommendation would be to seek expert advice from us here at Oliver Broomfield Mortgages and Insurances before making any decisions about your mortgage.

We can offer tailored advice based on your financial goals and situation, aligned with what we believe is the best choice in the current market.

Reach out to our team today for a no-obligation chat.

Until next time,

Oliver

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Frequently Asked Questions

The advantage of using a mortgage adviser is that they can negotiate with a number of lenders to find the deal that best suits you. They do all the leg work for you, saving you time.

We help assess all your options, whereas the Bank is restricted by being only able to present one view.

While banks expect the client will negotiate with them, or accept the given rate, mortgage brokers are more likely to go to bat for you, to get a lower interest rate.

Our processes make financing your house purchase easy; providing quick personal service that takes the stress out of financing your home loan. With our wealth of experience in the finance industry, we know how to get the best deal for you.

Absolutely! We can still work with you using email, phone calls, and video calls. Whatever your financial situation is, we have a range of options to communicate with you whatever circumstances.

Yes, we have an online application system or a pdf form that can be completed. Supporting documents can either be uploaded directly into our system or emailed. We can use telephone, zoom, or email for further clarification or look at scenarios and receive and send information.

A home loan pre-approval is a conditional approval confirming that we can lend you a certain amount of money, provided the property you purchase meets the lender’s home loan criteria. It’s a good idea to ask us for a home loan pre-approval before you start house hunting. It will help you determine how much you can borrow and to give you some bargaining power when negotiating a purchase price.

Saving a deposit is probably the biggest hurdle for most first home buyers. First home buyers need to have saved at least 5% deposit with 20% or more being the optimum. Remember that this can be made up from a KiwiSaver first home withdrawal and some first home buyers may also be eligible for a HomeStart Grant. Gifts and deed of debts from friends and family are also common.

While there has been a lot of publicity about the need for home buyers to have a 20% deposit; there are still options available for you. We can talk you through what may be available to you including:

  • The ability to access low equity loans
  • Using your Kiwisaver contributions towards your deposit
  • Building your own home
  • Accessing parental assistance to increase your deposit.

The size of your deposit makes a big difference to the interest rate and the other costs you could potentially pay on your home loan. Generally, for lending where the deposit is less than 20%, the lender will also charge a Low Equity Fee (LEF) or Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Interest rates may also be higher for loans with a low deposit.

Whilst assessing a loan application, banks will scrutinise your bank account (usually the most recent 3 months bank statements).

In particular, they are looking at how well (or not) you manage your account.

Do you have dishonors, and or unauthorised overdrafts?

The better your account conduct the better your chances!

The banks also want to make sure all expenses including fixed and discretionary costs are included in the mortgage application expenses.

This will be determined by your income, your capacity to repay the loan, and the property type along with the current lending restrictions imposed by the reserve bank. Contact us today to find out.

The income you will need to earn will depend on the size of the loan, the bigger your loan the more you will need to earn.

As a rule of thumb if you are a first home buyer who is currently renting and have also been able to save some money there is a good chance you will meet the banks’ income criteria.

A LIM report is a summary of information that the local Counsel hold on a property. The report covers off information regarding consents, permits, code of compliance, potential erosion, subsidence, flooding of any type and the possible presence of hazardous substances. private and public stormwater and sewerage drain, rates, including any overdue rates.

Your solicitor should review this document.

Absolutely, we do this every day for many existing clients. We can use our scenario calculator to ensure you meet lender criteria and affordability for yourself.

Yes, you can borrow money in New Zealand and may be able to borrow up to 80-90% of the purchase price of a home.

To be eligible to for the KiwiSaver First Home Withdrawal Scheme you must:

Be purchasing your first home;

  • Have been a member of KiwiSaver for a minimum of three years;
  • Have your KiwiSaver account with a KiwiSaver provider that allows saving withdrawals; and
  • Intend to live in the property for at least six months
  • We recommend that you contact your KiwiSaver provider and check their individual policy on withdrawals for first homes.
  • If you are eligible to withdraw money from your KiwiSaver, you may also be eligible for a first home deposit subsidy of up to $20,000.00 from Housing New Zealand – known as a HomeStart Grant.

Using a mortgage broker generally means no direct costs to you for their services but there are other unavoidable costs. These may include:

  • A Registered Valuation ($800 – $1,200)
  • Solicitor Costs ($800 – $1,500)
  • LIM report ($150 – $400)
  • Builder’s Report ($100 – $500)
  • Weather Tightness Report for Monoclad houses ($300 – $1,000)
  • Finance fee for non-bank lending (~1%)

Prices can vary. Always request a quote before ordering any of these services. 

The banks all have different policies and risk tolerances. Buyers can get frustrated and waste a lot of time going to banks that won’t suit their needs.

Using a mortgage broker gives you a view of all the banks and their policies. It means you find the right bank faster and with less stress. With a mortgage broker, getting a mortgage isn’t complicated.

It’s about proving you have enough deposit and enough income and then heading to the right bank with that information.

Some tips to making your mortgage application easier: get your documentation sorted early and keep your spending as low as possible in the 3 months leading up to your application.

We will always act in the best interest of the client and will ensure that any deal we broker is the best we can do for the client.

While there can be variances in the amount different lenders pay us we do not favour any particular lender for this reason.

We are also members of NZFSG & Financial Advice New Zealand both of which have ethics that we must adhere to.

We can also be audited at any time by the FMA (Financial Markets Authority)

No… The lenders that use our services see us as an efficient channel to obtain business from. They only pay us on success i.e. when the loan settles.

We sit alongside their other channels such as a bank branch or mobile manager.

The cost of obtaining business from a mortgage broker is comparable to these other channels the banks choose to use.

For this reason, it will cost you no more to use our services.

Mortgage advisers (often called mortgage brokers) are paid by the bank when a mortgage is drawn down.  If that mortgage is discharged (repaid and closed) within a short amount of time – typically 27 months – the broker must repay some or all of the commission (often referred to as a clawback).  In this instance, the mortgage broker has essentially done the work for no pay.

We reserve the right to charge for our time if a clawback is incurred.  The fee will be the estimated amount of hours the mortgage took at an hourly rate of $250 per hour.  Unlike other fees, such as Break Fees from the bank, we have capped the amount we can charge clients at $2,500.

If you are refinancing or selling your house, the best thing to do is immediately talk to your adviser and discuss if any clawback fees will be charged.

If the property is for you to live in, this is something you should discuss with your Lawyer at your initial meeting.  If it will be an Investment Property, you should discuss with your Accountant.  We would also suggest you find a property accountant, someone who deals in property all the time rather than just as a side part of their business.  

Refinancing creates an entirely new mortgage and an opportunity to restructure in a way that better suits your personal situation.

People refinance for lots of personal reasons, from changing circumstances to life goals and interest rates.

People often refinance with us because they want to get ahead faster and take advantage of the smart Go Home Loan structure and personalised support we offer.

The key to an effective loan structure is putting your savings and income into an account that helps reduce the daily interest costs of your mortgage, not a separate unlinked account.

Why? By combining all your income and savings against your Go Home loan, you’re making your money work harder for you.

A Go Home Loan is a much simpler mortgage structure that still uses your income and savings to reduce your daily interest costs.

Generally, banks offset your money from multiple accounts. Some clients find it difficult to track multiple accounts and figure out how much interest is being charged or offset.

We find that using a Go Home Loan is an effective loan structure by putting your savings and income into an account that helps reduce your daily interest costs.

As soon as you have decided to look for a property, the earlier the better.  We recommend a good, early, communication plan with your entire team including your Mortgage Broker, Accountant, and Lawyer/Solicitor